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Power industry dynamic tracking report: the recovery of secondary production promotes the growth of electricity consumption, and the continued development of water and nuclear power

Release time: 2019-05-15 11:03:01

Power industry dynamic tracking report: the recovery of secondary production promotes the growth of electricity consumption, and the continued development of water and nuclear power

www.eastmoney.com April 23, 2019 00:00 Ping An Securities Yan Jiayuan View original PDF

Investment Highlights

The national power industry production in the first quarter of 2019: In March, the entire society's electricity consumption was 573.2 billion kWh, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year, an increase of 3.9% over the same period last year; the power generation capacity of power plants above the national scale was 569.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase 5.4%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points over the same period last year. In the first quarter, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 1,679.5 billion kWh, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points from the same period last year; the power generation capacity of power plants above the national scale was 1,674.7 billion kWh, an increase of 4.2%, and a decrease of 3.8 points from the same period last year. Percentage points; the cumulative average utilization hour is 919 hours, which is 3 hours lower than the same period of the previous year. As of the end of March, the nation ’s installed capacity was 1.815 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. In the first quarter, the nation ’s new installed power generation capacity was 17.88 million kilowatts, which was 7.16 million kilowatts less than the same period of the previous year.

Electricity consumption: The secondary production is picking up, and the eastern coast is picking up significantly. In March, the power consumption of the first production increased by 3.9% year-on-year, down 2.0 percentage points from the same period last year; the second production increased by 6.3% year-on-year, up 7.9 percentage points from the same period last year; the third production increased by 9.9% year-on-year, down from the same period last year 11.2 percentage points; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 10.6% year-on-year, down 1.9 percentage points from the same period last year. In the first quarter, the electricity consumption of primary production increased by 6.8% year-on-year, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year; secondary production increased by 3.0% year-on-year, down 3.7 percentage points year-on-year; tertiary industry increased by 10.1% year-on-year, down from the same period of last year 6.6 percentage points; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 11.0% year-on-year, down 6.2 percentage points from the same period last year. It is worth noting that the growth rate of power consumption in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces in the eastern coastal areas rebounded significantly in March, especially in the first quarter of Zhejiang ’s power consumption growth rate has risen above the national average, releasing the domestic economy to stabilize The pick-up signal.

Power generation: Water and nuclear continued to generate high momentum, and the focus of power supply shifted simultaneously. In March, hydropower generation volume increased by 22.0% year-on-year, an increase of 27.3 percentage points over the same period of the previous year; thermal power increased by 1.0% year-on-year, decreased by 0.4 percentage point compared with the same period last year; nuclear power increased by 31.7% year-on-year, and increased by 30.0 percentage points compared with the same period last year; Wind power increased by 13.1% year-on-year, down 23.7 percentage points from the same period last year. In the first quarter, hydropower generation volume increased by 12.0% year-on-year, an increase of 9.4 percentage points year-on-year; thermal power increased by 2.0% year-on-year, down 4.9 percentage points year-on-year; nuclear power increased by 26.1% year-on-year, and 14.5 percentage points year-on-year; Wind power increased by 6.1% year-on-year, down 33.0 percentage points from the same period last year. Along with the industrial transfer driving up local electricity demand, and inter-provincial and inter-regional power transmission to absorb clean energy, the focus of power is also shifting to the Midwest.

Utilization hours: Hydropower increased significantly. In the first quarter, hydropower utilization hours were 691 hours, an increase of 74 hours over the same period last year; thermal power was 1,083 hours, a decrease of 6 hours over the same period last year; nuclear power was 1655 hours, a decrease of 35 hours over the same period last year; and wind power was 556 hours, a decrease over the same period last year. 36 hours.

Installed capacity: the increase in water and fire slowed down, and nuclear power increased significantly. As of the end of March, hydropower installed capacity increased by 2.5% year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year; thermal power increased by 3.3% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year; nuclear power increased by 24.3% year-on-year, an increase of 17.9% year-on-year ; Wind power increased by 12.7% year-on-year, an increase of 2.5 percentage points over the same period last year.

Investment suggestions: In March, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the national power generation increased by 5.4% year-on-year, which are better than the same period of last year. The main driving factor was that the power consumption of the secondary production rebounded sharply in March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.3%. In addition, the Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Fujian provinces in the eastern coastal areas saw a significant increase in power consumption growth in March, especially in Zhejiang Province. The quarterly power consumption growth rate has risen above the national average. In March, hydropower and nuclear power generation continued the rapid growth momentum of the previous two months, but the suppression of thermal power output also continued. The hydropower sector recommends SDIC Power, which is a combination of fire and fire, and offensive and defensive, and Yangtze Power, a global leader in hydropower. It is recommended to focus on Hubei Energy and Huaneng Hydropower. The nuclear power sector strongly recommends China Nuclear Power, which is a pure nuclear power operation target, and Zhejiang Energy Power and Shenneng Co., Ltd. are recommended to pay attention to China Guangdong Nuclear Power (H), which plans to return to A-shares and have the largest domestic installed capacity; the thermal power sector recommends focusing on Shanghai Power, a national leader in Huaneng International and Guodian Investment.

Risk reminders: 1) Use hours decrease. As one of the pillars of the operation of the national economy, the power industry is affected by changes in the relationship between supply and demand to a large extent, which will directly affect the utilization hours of power generation equipment. 2) Reduced on-grid electricity prices. The policy of lowering the sales price of electricity by the downstream users may be transmitted to the upstream generating side, which will lead to a reduction in the on-grid electricity price. With the advancement of the electricity reform, the scale of the market-based electricity transaction will continue to expand, which may lower the average on-grid electricity price. 3) Coal prices have risen. The release of high-quality coal production capacity is lagging behind, and environmental protection and production restriction have further suppressed the production and supply of coal. The sharp increase in demand for electricity has increased the bargaining power of coal producers and suppliers, which makes it difficult to effectively control the price of coal. Coal machine-based thermal power companies, rising fuel costs will reduce profits. 4) The policy advancement is lagging. The supply and demand of electricity in some areas of China is still in a state of oversupply, which may affect the consumption of existing nuclear power units and the construction of new nuclear power units. 5) Precipitation decreases. The operating performance of hydropower mainly depends on the incoming water and consumption conditions, and the incoming water conditions are related to natural factors such as precipitation and climate, and their predictability is not high.


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